Cocoa trade: who exports and who imports

Why a treaty prints trade statistics

The International Cocoa Agreement, 2026 enters into force definitively only when enough of both sides of the trade have joined: governments of at least 5 exporting countries with 80% of exports, and governments of importing countries with 60% of imports. To make that test workable the text fixes each country’s share in two annexes, as an average of three cocoa years. Those annexes are the tables below. They count cocoa in all its traded forms, with butter, powder and liquor converted back into the tonnes of beans they came from.

Growing cocoa is not the same as exporting it

Set each country’s net exports beside what FAOSTAT says it grew and the large producers fall into two groups. Most export almost exactly what they grow. Indonesia, Brazil do not: on these figures their net exports are less than half their production, either because the beans are ground and eaten at home, or because the country imports nearly as much as it sells, or because the production figure is too high.

5 of the twelve show net exports above production. A country cannot do that for long. It means stocks were run down, or beans crossed a border without being counted, or the two sources simply disagree. It is a reminder that this is a ratio of two estimates.

Who has to join

The thresholds turn these tables into a statement about power. Add the shares up and three things follow.

• Côte d'Ivoire cannot be left out. With 46.28% of exports, every other exporter combined falls short of 80%.
• The four largest exporters are not enough. Together they hold 79.63%. It takes the 5 largest to pass the line, at 86.51% — so the requirement for five countries and the requirement for 80% bite at the same point.
• European Union cannot be left out either, and is not enough alone. It holds 52.60% against a threshold of 60%. Only one other importer is large enough to close the gap by itself: United States. Without it, at least two more importers are needed.

The governments that declared the agreement in force from 1 October 2026 were producing countries. On these annexes the five named hold 48.28% of exports, and no importer was among them. That is below both thresholds, which is consistent with the text’s separate provision allowing the governments that have signed up to put the agreement into force among themselves. The announcement does not say which provision was used, and this page does not assume it.